How contenders can win AFC East, AFC South, NFC East, NFC South

As we head into the final week of the NFL season, four division titles remain up for grabs in the AFC East, AFC South, NFC East and NFC South.

The Miami Dolphins, Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles have already earned their spot in the playoffs, so a division title would boost their seeding and give them a home game in the opening round.

The Dolphins and Buffalo Bills are the only teams playing head-to-head for the division title, and for some of the seven teams trying to punch a ticket to the big dance, their only shot at the postseason is to come out on top of their division. For others, all they need is a win this weekend, while a few teams need a win and some help to get there.

Here’s how each division battle shapes up heading into Week 18:

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AFC East

Buffalo Bills (10-6) and Miami Dolphins (11-5)

Remaining game: Bills at Miami (8:20 p.m. ET, Sunday)

Bills’ chances of winning the division: 54%
Bills’ chances of making the playoffs: 95%

Dolphins’ chances of winning the division: 46.0%
Dolphins’ chances of making the playoffs: 100%

The Dolphins have already secured a playoff spot, but they’ll finish atop the division with a win or tie against the Bills.

The Bills win the division with a victory Sunday, but things could get sticky if they lose. A tie will put them in the postseason, as would a loss or tie by the Pittsburgh Steelers or Jacksonville Jaguars, or a tie in the Texans-Colts game. But the Steelers play the Baltimore Ravens, who have locked up the No. 1 seed in the AFC and plan to rest their MVP-favorite quarterback, Lamar Jackson, in the season finale, and the Jags play a Tennessee Titans (5-11) team they defeated 34-14 in Week 11 that is already eliminated from playoff contention. — Marcel Louis-Jacques and Alaina Getzenberg

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AFC South

Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7)

Remaining game: at Tennessee Titans (1 p.m. ET, Sunday)
Chances of winning the division: 69.4%
Chances of making the playoffs: 83.1%

What scenario needs to happen to win the division? It’s pretty simple for the Jaguars: beat the Titans and they will have back-to-back division titles for just the second time in franchise history. The only other time that happened was 1998 and ’99, when the team played in the AFC Central. A tie with the Titans and a tie between the Colts and Texans also would seal it.

Can this team still make the playoffs as a wild-card team? Yes, even if the Jaguars lose to the Titans — but they’ll need help. Denver would have to lose at Las Vegas, Pittsburgh would have to lose at Baltimore and the Houston-Indianapolis game would have to not end in a tie. — Michael DiRocco

Indianapolis Colts (9-7)

Remaining game: vs. Houston Texans (8:15 p.m. ET, Saturday)
Chances of winning the division: 16.7%
Chances of making the playoffs: 53.2%

What scenario needs to happen to win the division? The Colts still have an outside chance of claiming their first AFC South title since 2014, but they’ll need to beat the Texans and hope for a Jaguars loss or tie against the Titans.

Can this team still make the playoffs as a wild-card team? Indianapolis would still clinch a wild-card berth by beating the Texans. The Colts can also qualify with a tie against the Texans and a Steelers loss or tie against the Ravens. The Colts defeated the Texans 31-20 in their first meeting in Week 2. — Stephen Holder

Houston Texans (9-7)

Remaining game: at Indianapolis Colts (8:15 p.m. ET, Saturday)
Chances of winning the division: 13.9%
Chances of making the playoffs: 46.9%

What scenario needs to happen to win the division? Like the Colts, the Texans would need the Titans to defeat or tie the Jags, and Houston would need to win the season finale in Indy. If the Jaguars and Texans win, the Jaguars would have the better individual record, which would give them the tiebreaker over the Texans.

Can this team still make the playoffs as a wild-card team? Yes. Simply win and the Texans are in. With their game on Saturday, they’ll have to wait until Sunday to figure out whether they’ll be on the road or hosting a playoff game if they win, but with a tie, things aren’t so clear. In that case, Houston would need Jacksonville to lose and Pittsburgh to lose or tie. — D.J. Bien-Aime

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NFC East

Dallas Cowboys (11-5)

Remaining game: at Washington Commanders (4:25 p.m. ET, Sunday)
Chances of winning the division: 80.9%
Chances of making the playoffs: 100%

What scenario needs to happen to win the division? The Cowboys, who are also fighting for the No. 2 seed, will win the division by beating the Commanders or if the Eagles lose to the Giants. The Cowboys would also win it if the Cowboys and Eagles end up with ties.

Can this team still make the playoffs as a wild-card team? The Cowboys have been guaranteed at least a wild-card spot since Week 15. — Todd Archer

Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)

Remaining game: at New York Giants (4:25 p.m. ET, Sunday)
Chances of winning the division: 19.1%
Chances of making the playoffs: 100%

What scenario needs to happen to win the division? After a hot start, the Eagles no longer control their own destiny to the division crown after losing four of their past five. They need to beat the Giants and for the Cowboys to lose or tie. If the Eagles and Giants were to tie, the Eagles would need the Cowboys to lose.

Can this team still make the playoffs as a wild-card team? Like the Cowboys, Philly clinched a playoff spot in Week 15. The most likely scenario is the Eagles end up as the No. 5 seed and go on the road to play at the NFC South winner in the opening round. — Tim McManus

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NFC South

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8)

Remaining game: at Carolina Panthers (1 p.m. ET, Sunday)
Chances of winning the division: 71.5%
Chances of making the playoffs: 71.5%

What scenario needs to happen to win the division? If the Bucs beat the Panthers (2-14), then they win the division. If they were to tie, then they would need a Saints loss or tie in their game with the Falcons. If the Bucs were to lose, they can’t win the division.

Can this team still make the playoffs as a wild-card team? The answer is yes, but the odds are low. The only path to a wild-card spot for the Bucs would be if they tie, the Saints win, the Seattle Seahawks lose and the Green Bay Packers lose or tie. — Jenna Laine

New Orleans Saints (8-8)

Remaining game: vs. Atlanta Falcons (1 p.m. E.T. on Sunday)
Chances of winning the division: 17.2%
Chances of making the playoffs: 24%

What scenario needs to happen to win the division? To win the NFC South, the Saints need to beat or tie the Falcons and a Buccaneers loss to the Panthers. The Saints can also tie the Falcons with a Tampa loss. That would give New Orleans the No. 4 seed and a home game in the first round.

Can this team still make the playoffs as a wild-card team? Yes, but it wouldn’t be easy. The Saints can get the final wild-card spot with a win and a Seahawks loss or tie with the Cardinals and a Packers loss or tie with the Bears. A tie with the Falcons could also get the Saints in with a Seahawks loss and a Packers loss. They will not make the playoffs if they lose to the Falcons.— Katherine Terrell

Atlanta Falcons (7-9)

Remaining game: at New Orleans Saints (1 p.m. E.T. on Sunday)
Chances of winning the division: 11.3%
Chances of making the playoffs: 11.3%

What scenario needs to happen to win the division? The Falcons have one way to make the playoffs: Beat the Saints and hope the Panthers upset the Buccaneers. That’ll create a three-way tie at 8-9, and the Falcons would win the NFC South on a tiebreaker.

Can this team still make the playoffs as a wild-card team? No, last Sunday’s loss to Chicago ended the Falcons’ wild-card chances while also ensuring Atlanta will finish below .500 for the sixth consecutive season. — Michael Rothstein