Win the Weekend – Fantasy football playoff notes, NFL and college bowl betting tips

Want to know the latest trends, matchups and injury news in football? We’ve got you. Want to know where the public has money this week? We’ve got you. Want to know which teams to play, whom to roster in DFS or whom to pick in your Eliminator pool? We’ve got you there, too. Here’s everything you need to know as you prepare for your fantasy football matchups and potential bets on the games this weekend.

Odds by ESPN BET.

CFB: Action Report | Analytics Edges

NFL: Injury update | Matchups to exploit | Eliminator Challenge | DFS plays |Analytics Edges | Action Report

Sports Betting home | Fantasy Football home

---

College Football

David Purdum’s Action Report

• After a little early line movement last week, the lines on the two College Football Playoff semifinals were holding steady heading into the weekend. The Michigan Wolverines remained a consensus 2-point favorite over the Alabama Crimson Tide as of Thursday, with the bulk of the action backing the underdog Tide at sportsbooks. DraftKings was reporting Thursday that 75% of the money that had been wagered on the Rose Bowl point spread was on Alabama. The point spread reached as high as Michigan -2.5 before Christmas at ESPN BET but was settling back near its opening number of -1.5 or -2 at most sportsbooks. «The vast majority of the action right now is on Alabama,» Joey Feazel, Caesars Sportsbook’s lead college football trader, said on a company podcast.

• In the Sugar Bowl, the Texas Longhorns remained a 4-point favorite over the Washington.Huskies. «The line’s been stuck on four since we opened,» Feazel said. «The action is pretty split.» Feazel said the Alabama-Michigan game had attracted three times as much betting action as Washington Texas at Caesars Sportsbook.

• The line on the Orange Bowl between the Georgia Bulldogs and Florida State Seminoles continued to grow this week after multiple Seminoles, including their projected starting quarterback, entered the transfer portal or opted out of the game. Georgia, which opened as a 13.5-point favorite, was -20 as of Thursday. Nearly 80% of the money that had been bet on the game’s point spread as of Thursday at DraftKings was on Georgia.

• Looking ahead to bowls on Saturday and Monday, Feazel pointed to ReliaQuest Bowl between the Wisconsin Badgers and LSU Tigers as one of the biggest decisions the book was facing. «I expect we’re going to need Wisconsin pretty bad early on,» Feazel told ESPN. The line opened at LSU -10.5, dropped to -7 after Tigers quarterback Jayden Daniels opted out, but has since grown back to -10.

Seth Walder’s biggest edges from ESPN Analytics

• Memphis Tigers (+10.5) vs. Iowa State Cyclones: From FPI’s perspective, we’re getting double-digit points here to take the team with the better offense — Memphis ranked 29th in offensive efficiency, Iowa State 36th. Both teams’ regular quarterbacks — who rank 38th and 39th in QBR — should play in the game. Of course, Iowa State’s defense is better, but not by enough, in FPI’s opinion, to justify this spread. The model makes the Cyclones just 4.6-point favorites in Friday’s AutoZone Liberty Bowl (3:30 p.m. on ESPN/ESPN+).

---

NFL

Stephania Bell’s injury update.

Matt Bowen’s matchups to exploit

• Slot targets for CeeDee Lamb vs. the Lions defense: Let’s watch Lamb in the slot on Saturday night, where he has caught seven of his nine touchdowns this season. Here, Dallas can scheme for Lamb to attack the middle of the field versus zone coverage, while also setting him up on catch and run targets to win the man matchups. Lamb has logged 56 receptions out of the slot this season.

• Brock Purdy vs. the Commanders’ 2-High schemes: I expect a bounce-back week for Purdy on Sunday against a Washington defense that has allowed 261.6 yards passing per game, the second-most in the league. The Commanders play split-safety coverage on 51.2% of opponent drop-backs, so look for Kyle Shanahan to push the safeties deep while creating intermediate windows for Purdy. Defined, timing throws here.

• For more breakdowns, check out Matt Bowen’s Film Room.

Mike Clay’s Eliminator Challenge advice

• Jacksonville Jaguars: We’re down to our final two weeks and have several decent options. They included the Browns (vs. Jets) on Thursday night, but if you didn’t go that direction, we have the Jaguars (vs. Panthers), Chiefs (vs. Bengals), Rams (at Giants), Broncos (vs. Raiders) and perhaps even the Bears (vs. Falcons). The Chiefs are likely going to be our best Week 18 play (at Chargers), the Rams are on the road and the Broncos made a QB change, so the Jaguars are the call … for now. Regardless of the QB situation, Jacksonville will be the favorite at home against the 2-win Panthers, but obviously the Jaguars will be a riskier play if Trevor Lawrence is sidelined. I’ll roll with the AFC South leaders for now, but we certainly have pivots if need be.

• Be sure to also check out Clay’s Eliminator Challenge cheat sheet (updated weekly).

Al Zeidenfeld’s DFS plays

• There’s so much value this week at running back and tight end that it makes it very easy to wrap your tournament stacks around the core value plays and possibly even afford Christian McCaffrey ($9,600). Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($5,300) has done well earlier this month in relief of Isaiah Pacheco, and with Pacheco in concussion protocols and not yet cleared, CEH provides a very clear path to volume this weekend against the Bengals, who have allowed the most explosive plays per game on the season. Zamir White ($5,100), Ezekiel Elliott ($6,000), and Devin Singletary ($5,600) are all available at $6,000 or less on DraftKings, making lineup-building around a cheap core built on massive volume opportunity extremely possible.

• More DFS plays here.

Seth Walder’s biggest edges from ESPN Analytics

• Trey Hendrickson under 0.5 sacks (+125): Yes, Patrick Mahomes is coming off a game in which he took four sacks at the hands of the Raiders. But he is still one of the absolute greatest quarterbacks at avoiding sacks, and I’m going to need to see many more bad games before I move off of that belief. After all, he still has the second-lowest sack rate (3.9%) among qualifying quarterbacks. My model makes Hendrickson -150 to go under.

• Pete Werner over 5.5 tackles + assists (-125): The Buccaneers lean run-heavy and that plays right into the hands of the over since almost all linebackers record tackles at a higher rate on running plays than passing plays. Werner’s playing time dipped after missing Week 13 with shoulder and oblique injuries, but it ramped up to 87% of defensive snaps last week. My model projects 6.7 tackles + assists for the Saints linebacker.

David Purdum’s Action Report

• The Baltimore Ravens moved from 3- to 4-point favorites over the Miami Dolphins after their impressive win over the San Francisco 49ers on Monday. The line has moved back down toward the Dolphins and was sitting at Miami -3 (-115) as of Thursday night at most sportsbooks. «There was some sharp action on the Dolphins +3.5,» Adam Pullen, assistant director of trading for Caesar Sportsbook said.

• The line on the Detroit Lions-Dallas Cowboys game Saturday was sitting at Dallas -5.5 most of the week. Caesars said they did push it up to -6 earlier in the week but quickly took a bet on the Lions, causing them drop the line back to -5.5.

• Teams that attracted early lopsided point spread action as of Thursday at DraftKings included: the San Francisco 49ers (-12.5) had 78% of the money wagered against the Washington Commanders; the Denver Broncos (-3.5) had 73% of the money wagered against the Los Angeles Chargers.